Japan’s 2025 national census found that the country’s population dropped by more than 3 million people compared to 2020, marking both its largest and fastest decline ever. Japan now has about 123 million people, a drop of 2.5%, showing that the country’s population problem has accelerated greatly. For reference, the drop found in 2020’s census was just 0.7%.
While the obvious main contributor is of course Japan’s infamous birthrate issue, there was also one other point at play in 2020. A lot of Japanese people living overseas returned home during the pandemic, which was a large enough bump in the census to soften some of the decline at the time.
The most brutal part is that population decline is now hitting Tokyo’s suburbs too. While Tokyo, unsurprisingly, was one of the prefectures that grew, Kanagawa, Saitama, and Chiba all saw a decline. In fact, this is the first time in census history that Saitama and Chiba’s populations have shrunk. Kanagawa, on the other hand, hasn’t seen a decline since the end of World War II.
Other urban areas are hurting too. Aichi, where Nagoya is located, along with Fukuoka, both shifted into decline. Osaka, which had just a 0.1% drop in 2020’s census, saw a much larger 0.8% drop in 2025.
Meanwhile, the Tohoku, Shikoku, and Chugoku areas were some of the hardest hit. Akita saw the country’s harshest dropoff, a painful 8.1%. Aomori followed close behind with 7.9%, tailed by Iwate, Yamagata, and Kochi, which were all tied at 7%.
Looking at absolute numbers as opposed to percentages, Hokkaido lost the most population, declining by 239,195 people. Shizuoka followed with a 164,357-person drop, then Hyogo with 141,177. Hokkaido and Hyogo in particular are notable, with Hokkaido having Sapporo as its economic center, and Hyogo containing Kobe.
One interesting point is that despite the population drop, the number of households in the country actually rose by 2.3%. Unfortunately, this is due to a sharp increase in the number of single-person households, which certainly isn’t going to help the birthrate. The average number of people in a household fell to a record low: 2.15 people.
Prior to 2025’s census, Japan was the 11th most populated country, but it has now dropped to 12th place behind Ethiopia. At the same time, that ranking is maybe less important than the direction of the decline itself. Japan is still one of the most populated countries in the world, but the real issue is that the shrinkage is getting faster, broader, and harder to ignore. This is no longer just a story about remote towns slowly emptying out. It is now reaching major prefectures that, until recently, could rely on migration from other parts of the country to keep growing.
But it’s not all bad news! The second prefecture that saw growth was Okinawa. Okinawa is already famous for longevity, but it has also stood out within Japan for a stronger child population and higher birthrate than much of the country. While Tokyo’s growth is relatively easy to understand as the country’s largest job center, Okinawa’s growth is interesting for a different reason. It suggests that even as Japan’s national population decline accelerates, there are still a few places with a very different demographic story from the national average. In a country where 45 out of 47 prefectures declined, simply staying in the positive column is a pretty big deal.
For our customers looking to buy in or around Tokyo, the big takeaway is not that Tokyo is suddenly “safe” and everywhere else is doomed. It’s more that the difference between Tokyo proper and the surrounding prefectures may become even more important. Tokyo is still growing, still highly concentrated, and still has the strongest pull for jobs, universities, transportation, and lifestyle. That helps explain why prices in central and desirable Tokyo areas can feel stubbornly high even while the country’s population is shrinking.
Kanagawa, Chiba, and Saitama are a little more complicated. A population decline does not automatically mean property prices will collapse, especially in areas with good train access to Tokyo. Popular commuter hubs, along with central Yokohama, Saitama City, Chiba City, and well-connected station areas may still hold up relatively well. But the further you get from convenient stations and strong local demand, the more careful buyers need to be.
So for buyers, this census is not a reason to panic, but it is a reason to be more selective. Tokyo may continue to be supported by concentration and convenience, while parts of Kanagawa, Chiba, and Saitama could still offer better space and value for the money. The key is knowing the difference between a suburb with real staying power and an area that is only cheap because demand is quietly weakening.
Source: https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/9f145d064d49432b10e3943704f0d927531a90ca