Japan’s future high-rise condo supply is looking a lot bigger than it did last year. According to the Real Estate Economic Institute’s 2026 report, Japan currently has 319 high-rise condo buildings planned for completion from 2026 onward, totaling 107,408 units nationwide. For the report, a “high-rise” condominium means a building with 20 floors or more, so these are essentially the buildings many people in Japan refer to as tower mansions.
Compared with the previous year’s survey, this is an increase of 103 buildings and 26,107 units. Right off the bat, that probably sounds like good news for anyone hoping for more housing supply. More condos should mean more options for buyers, and in a market where new-build condo prices have felt increasingly painful, a headline about more than 100,000 planned units definitely sounds encouraging.
But, as is so often the case with Japanese real estate, there is a bit more to it than that. The important thing to remember is that “planned” and “completed” are not the same thing. The report itself notes that rising construction costs are already causing some projects to be significantly delayed, revised, or reconsidered altogether. In other words, Japan may have a lot of high-rise condos on the drawing board, but that does not mean every project will arrive on time, in its original form, or at a price buyers are going to love.
Unsurprisingly, the Tokyo metropolitan area still accounts for most of the future supply. From 2026 onward, Greater Tokyo has 177 buildings and 73,713 units planned, making up 68.6% of the national total. That share is down from 76.2% in the previous survey, but this does not mean Tokyo is shrinking. Greater Tokyo still increased by 35 buildings and 11,771 units. The more accurate way to read this is that Tokyo is still growing, but other areas are growing too.
Within Greater Tokyo, the Tokyo 23 wards are still the biggest part of the story. The 23 wards alone account for 124 buildings and 50,935 planned units, or 47.4% of the national total. So while the national picture is becoming a little less Tokyo-only than before, central Tokyo is obviously still central Tokyo. It remains the country’s most important market by a very wide margin.
Kansai is the clearest example of the shift. The Kansai region has 51 buildings and 16,630 units planned from 2026 onward, with its share of the national total rising from 12.0% to 15.5%. Osaka City is a major part of that, with 29 buildings and 8,707 units planned. The report also lists future projects in regional areas including Fukuoka, Aichi, Hiroshima, Okayama, Hokkaido, and Miyagi, showing that high-rise condo development is no longer limited to Tokyo’s 23 wards or central Osaka.
This broader spread also fits with why these buildings became popular in the first place. According to the report, ultra-high-rise condominium construction and planning began increasing sharply in the late 1990s, partly because these buildings were seen as relatively resistant to price drops and easier to resell even after becoming used properties. The report also points to redevelopment in city centers and around major stations as a major reason these projects spread.
That is probably the more useful point for buyers. People usually are not buying high-rise condos just because they are tall. They are buying the location, station access, surrounding redevelopment, management condition, and future resale potential.
Looking ahead, the report expects completions to increase again in 2026, reaching the 18,000-unit range, before staying around 14,000 units in both 2027 and 2028. A lot of this is tied to large high-rise projects and mixed-use redevelopment projects, not only in central Tokyo and waterfront areas, but also in regional core cities.
For buyers, the takeaway is not simply “a lot of new condos are coming.” More future supply could eventually mean more options, especially for buyers who specifically want newer buildings, high-rise condos, large-scale condo communities, or redevelopment areas near major stations. If you are interested in places like central Tokyo, Tokyo’s bay area, central Osaka, or certain regional city centers, this is worth watching.
At the same time, buyers should be careful about assuming that more planned supply means prices are automatically going to become easier. Construction costs are still a major issue, and the report specifically says some projects are already being delayed, revised, or reconsidered. If costs keep rising, new units may arrive later than expected, in smaller numbers than originally planned, or at prices that still feel very high.
This is also important when comparing new-build condos with pre-owned properties. A future high-rise condo project may sound attractive, but the actual price, location, purchase timeline, lottery or application process, monthly management fees, repair reserve fund, and resale assumptions all need to be looked at carefully.
All in all, Japan has a major amount of high-rise condo supply planned from 2026 onward. Tokyo is still the center of the market, while Osaka, Kansai in general, and regional cities are becoming more important. But planned supply is not the same as guaranteed supply, and in the current market, the gap between “planned” and “actually completed” may end up being one of the most important things to watch, along with how Japan’s population is changing from area to area. For more on that, check out our recent article on Japan’s population dropping in all but 2 prefectures.
Source: https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZRSP707999_U6A600C2000000/